Per Lundberg

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  The irreducible uncertainty of the demography-environment interaction in ecology
  Per Lundberg
  The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). This may be an impossible task. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecological processes. Ignoring the fact that this is a real problem may mislead ecologists and result in erroneous conclusions about the relative importance of endogenous and exogenous factors in natural ecosystems. The problem will be illustrated by a few model analyses and some thoughts on the epistemology of ecology.